8 greatest 2023 NFL Draft prop bets

Odds are that in case you are studying this piece you’re considerably invested within the NFL draft.

I promise we’ll cease with the dangerous puns now.

However you probably have made it this far it’s seemingly that you’ve got spent a while finding out prospects, taking a look at mock drafts, enthusiastic about potential touchdown spots, and different conduct that in one other business may need individuals questioning about your sanity. Such is the fantastic thing about draft season.

So, why not attempt to make a bit cash?

Because of our mates at DraftKings Sportsbook, there are some NFL draft prop bets which you could play. The same old caveats apply: Please play duty, and possibly fade each advice that I make. I’m an F1 author in spite of everything.

Additionally, these are the percentages listed as of April 14, so issues could have modified by the point you learn this.

With that stated, listed here are some performs that I like forward of the 2023 NFL Draft.

Draft Place

Anthony Richardson Over/Beneath Decide 4.5

This seems like an easy below play, even with the below listed at -115. Because the draft approaches the concept of Richardson coming off the board inside the first 4 picks looks as if a lock. His present spot in keeping with NFL Mock Draft Database is at 4 to Indianapolis, and with the concept the Arizona Cardinals might commerce out of three to a workforce trying to come up for a QB, he might come off the board there.

There’s additionally the concept Richardson might go first total…

Christian Gonzalez Over/Beneath Decide 8.5

Over the winter, Christian Gonzalez from Oregon appeared a lock to be the primary cornerback taken. However because the climate warmed up, that dialog has shifted a bit. Gonzalez has slid out of the highest 5 in consensus mock drafts, and there may be an concept that Devon Witherspoon might be the primary cornerback drafted as a substitute.

Nevertheless, there are two viable touchdown spots for cornerbacks inside the primary eight picks: Detroit at 6, and Atlanta at 8. Even with the current Jeff Okudah commerce, the Falcons might nonetheless tackle cornerback, and the Lions actually have a necessity at that spot.

Then there are the Las Vegas Raiders. Whereas quarterback is actually an possibility for them, consensus mock drafts have Gonzalez as their choose at seven total.

The below is listed at +110 proper now, but it surely looks as if the good play.

Zay Flowers Over/Beneath Decide 22.5

Vast receiver is likely one of the place teams that’s falling out of favor because the draft approaches. Jim Nagy, the Government Director of the Senior Bowl, tweeting the next:

One other WR receiving WR1 buzz? Zay Flowers from Boston Faculty. Whereas this 12 months’s draft crop on the place would possibly skew in the direction of slot receivers, resembling Flowers and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, there are nonetheless quite a few touchdown spots for each gamers inside the highest 22 of the draft, together with New England at 14 — the consensus touchdown spot for Flowers in the meanwhile — Seattle at 20, the Los Angeles Chargers at 21, and the Baltimore Ravens at 22. The below right here, listed at -155, seems like the appropriate transfer.

Place Totals

Complete defensive backs drafted in first spherical Over/Beneath 4.5

Listed at -400, the over here’s a heavy favourite, with implied odds of 80%.

With good cause.

As we’ve got mentioned in current days, cornerback alone may be the deepest place within the draft. At present 4 cornerbacks are inside the primary spherical of consensus mock drafts — Christian Gonzalez, Devon Witherspoon, Joey Porter Jr., and Deonte Banks — with different resembling Cam Smith, Emmanuel Forbes, and Kelee Ringo simply on the cusp of the primary spherical.

Then there may be Alabama security Brian Department, who can be in first-round place in the meanwhile.

You won’t be able to retire off this play, however you may most likely take into account it a secure W.

Complete quarterbacks drafted in first spherical Over/Beneath 4.5

We will name this the “Hendon Hooker Prop.”

Having been across the NFL draft sport longer than I might care to confess, one of many draft certainties is that this: Because the draft approaches there will likely be a push to slip one final QB into the primary spherical. There was late buzz on Christian Hackenberg sneaking into the primary spherical again in 2016. The subsequent 12 months it was DeShone Kizer, who was considered as a participant who might come off the board within the first spherical, maybe even early within the first spherical, however who finally slid into the second.

2018 noticed 5 quarterbacks come off the board within the first spherical, however because the draft approached there was an thought {that a} sixth might sneak into the primary spherical, with Mason Rudolph out of Oklahoma State. Rudolph finally slid to the third spherical. Then in 2021, one other draft that noticed 5 QBs within the first spherical, Kyle Trask was the QB receiving the late buzz for a push into the highest 32 picks.

He ultimately got here off the board on the finish of the second spherical.

This 12 months it’s Hooker, the Tennessee product who put up large numbers, however has some strikes towards his analysis. He’s an older prospect, coming off a big knee harm, who ran an offense which may not make for a straightforward transition to the NFL.

Nonetheless, that has not stopped the concept Hooker might discover himself within the first spherical. Mel Kiper Jr. put him inside the primary spherical of his most up-to-date mock draft, and there may be different reporting that Hooker’s pre-draft course of has “cemented” his first-round inventory.

I’ve seen this earlier than, and I’m not shopping for it this time. Listed at -155 on Draft Kings, the below is the play for me.

Complete tight ends drafted in first spherical Over/Beneath 2.5

Whereas cornerback is usually thought-about to be the deepest place within the draft, one other robust place group is tight finish. Daniel Jeremiah of the NFL Community has 5 tight ends listed inside his top-50 prospects, and previous to the NFL Scouting Mix Jeremiah famous that he has 11 prospects on the place graded inside the primary three rounds.

Nevertheless, might we actually see three — or extra — within the first spherical? Draft Kings doesn’t assume so, with the below right here listed at -220, with implied odds of practically 70% that the below hits.

I’m going with the over as a substitute at +170.

As a result of the weak spot at extensive receiver might carry over to the tight finish group. Groups trying so as to add within the passing sport with go for a good finish, as a substitute of a large receiver. Plus, there are a variety of touchdown spots for tight ends within the first spherical, together with Inexperienced Bay at 15, the Chargers at 21, Dallas at 26, Cincinnati at 28, and even Jacksonville at 24. Maybe I’m mistaken, so I might not make this an enormous play, however I simply have a sense the league leans into the tight ends this draft cycle.

Head-to-Head

Who will likely be drafted earlier, Dalton Kincaid or Michael Mayer?

Let’s proceed with the tight finish theme.

The controversy over TE1 will finish quickly, as one in all these two prospects will come off the board first in a number of weeks. Utah tight finish Dalton Kincaid is considered as the favourite right here, listed at -190, and there may be good cause for that. He’s a real weapon within the passing sport, can create after the catch, and may be an ideal schematic match for the Packers, who might be the workforce that addressed tight finish first.

In any case, our most up-to-date mock draft has Kincaid to Inexperienced Bay within the first spherical.

However Michael Mayer out of Notre Dame is the prototypical tight finish, who can play in-line, within the wing, within the slot, and even on the boundary. He’s the extra full prospect. I like Mayer to come back off the board first, our personal mock however. Mayer is at present listed at +150.

Who will likely be drafted earlier, Devon Witherspoon or Christian Gonzalez?

I’ve not precisely been shy about my love for Gonzalez on this draft, diving into his sport on the finish of March to make the case for him being CB1.

But when you don’t want to take my phrase, take the phrase of Peter Schrager from Good Morning Soccer. Schrager lately shared the “IYKYK Checklist,” highlighting 5 prospects that, in talking with normal managers, are going to come back off the board sooner than anticipated.

Gonzalez was on that checklist:

The thrill appears to be round Witherspoon proper now, and he’s listed as the favourite at -180, however Gonzalez is my play right here at +135.

(Additionally, you’ll observe that Emmanuel Forbes is on this checklist, which is one other information level for the Over/Beneath on first-round defensive backs).