Auburn to upset No. 1 Houston

Now that my undefeated report of selecting No. 13 seeds or decrease within the NCAA Match publicly continues to be intact after Furman’s victory over Virginia on Thursday, I’m deciding to not relaxation on my laurels and inform you all about one other prediction I made earlier this week. For followers of Deadspin’s Conform to Disagree video collection, it is a choice I’ve already proclaimed on digital camera. Auburn will upset the Midwest area’s No. 1 seed in Houston on Saturday. It’s not fairly the lopsided upset as selecting the Paladins or Saint Peter’s over Kentucky final yr, but it surely’s little doubt not what’ll be favored.

The Cougars regarded horrible in opposition to one of many worst groups within the NCAA Match. Northern Kentucky obtained out of a weak low-major within the Horizon League. The Norse genuinely impressed me final night time and held robust with one of many supposed finest groups within the nation. Kelvin Sampson’s squad earned that No. 1 seed and was arguably probably the most constant crew within the nation through the common season. And Houston both was trying previous a crew it knew it might simply defeat, or the upstart Norse really uncovered what a Marcus Sasser-less crew seems to be like.

Should you take the perfect participant away from any nice crew, it gained’t be as mighty anymore. Purdue with out Zach Edey is a bubble crew and may be enjoying within the NIT proper now. Alabama with out Brandon Miller, which must be a actuality proper now with the off-court drama surrounding the Crimson Tide, would’ve gotten a robust seed in The Large Dance, however seemingly extra towards the 4-5 line. Sasser is that needle-mover for the Cougars. The drop-off with out the 6-foot-2 senior guard and seemingly NBA lottery decide due to a groin harm suffered within the American Athletic Convention Match final week, is clear. He was pulled at halftime by Sampson and Houston was inconsistent with out him.

Auburn had a real toss-up matchup with Iowa on paper. The Tigers had been at all times higher than their seeding, whereas Iowa wasn’t. The Hawkeyes have by no means had a future within the match beneath Fran McCaffery and this yr’s Kris Murray-led squad was no completely different. The SEC outmuscled the Large Ten. There’s no approach round that. And Auburn might have thrown a number of extra punches on the finish of the sport if wanted. Within the nightcap, it was apparent by the tip of the sport how drained Northern Kentucky was. A crew higher conditioned to play with Houston, which can be each crew the Cougars see the remainder of the season, will be capable of take higher benefit of a susceptible, unmotivated squad. And if the dearth of drive isn’t actuality for UH, it didn’t present it in opposition to the Norse. It additionally has an ideal probability for redemption in opposition to Auburn. However nothing’s assured. And Bruce Pearl-coached groups often don’t miss when provided that kind of alternative.

It’s not clear if Sasser will play at 7:10 p.m. on TBS with a visit to the Candy 16 on the road. It’s clear that if he performs, he gained’t be at full well being, which is already a downgrade from what we’ve anticipated from the Cougars for many of this season. Auburn is a crew that’s gone by a bunch of adversity this season and nonetheless discovered its approach safely into March Insanity. It’s a special form of entice to outline the adversity for Houston. Saying the Cougars have been by none can be silly. Their paths of resistance have been examined in video games, with extra tangible rewards, like 11 extra wins than the Tigers this season, alongside the best way. That’ll imply little come Saturday night time in Birmingham, a brief 110-mile journey from Auburn. And it won’t be a house recreation for the AU, but it surely ought to really feel prefer it from the group. Houston’s strolling into enemy territory and I don’t assume it’ll be robust sufficient to stroll out of the primetime matchup nonetheless with a season to play for.