8 NBA Playoffs overreactions from begin of each first spherical collection

NBA Playoffs collection should not strictly decided by the primary sport, however groups that win Recreation 1 traditionally have an enormous edge in advancing. In 2018, the NBA put out knowledge that mentioned groups that win the primary sport of a best-of-seven collection win the collection 76.6 % of the time. Within the first spherical, groups that win Recreation 1 win the collection 79.7 % of the time, in line with Land of Basketball.

Each collection within the 2023 NBA Playoffs is now underway, and we’ve already seen some large surprises. The No. 6 seed Golden State Warriors have been favored to beat the No. 3 seed Sacramento Kings of their first spherical collection, but it surely was the Kings who took dwelling a W in Recreation 1. The Phoenix Suns have been among the many largest favorites to win the West, however they dropped Recreation 1 to a Los Angeles Clippers group enjoying with out Paul George. The No. 7 seed Lakers additionally took Recreation 1 from the No. 2 seed Memphis Grizzlies after Ja Morant’s scary wrist damage, whereas the No. 8 seed Miami Warmth pulled off the upset over the No. 1 seed Milwaukee Bucks after Giannis Antetokounmpo’s again damage.

We knew these playoffs have been going to be broad open, however the Recreation 1 outcomes have been nonetheless stunning to see. Right here’s our largest overreactions after watching the primary sport of each playoff collection.

The Bucks are in deep trouble

After dropping Recreation 1 to Miami, the pure response is likely to be to say that this was only a blip on the radar. Nonetheless, there are a couple of the reason why this Bucks group may very well be in very deep bother. NBA insider Shams Charania experiences that Bucks’ star ahead Giannis Antetokounmpo may very well be out there for Wednesday’s sport, but when he’s at something lower than 100%, it might imply bother for the Bucks.

As well as, the Warmth is likely to be discovering their stroke from deep. All season, the primary theme was how the Warmth offense has taken a step again, particularly when taking pictures from deep. Towards Milwaukee in Recreation 1, they shot 60% from deep and from the sphere. In fact, Giannis modifications the mathematics on the taking pictures from the sphere, but when the Warmth proceed to shoot like that from deep, it modifications the mathematics on the whole lot.

Plus, that is Miami we’re speaking about. They all the time are going to be a troublesome out, no matter how they performed within the common season. If Giannis isn’t 100%, this severe might go lots longer than the Bucks needed. —J.P. Acosta

The Celtics acquired their wake-up name early, and that ought to terrify the East

A simple overreaction from Recreation 1 of the Celtics-Hawks collection is that Boston goes to roll to a straightforward collection win. The Celtics’ 112-99 win on Saturday would possibly naturally lead one to that conclusion. Nonetheless, the true takeaway is that this: Boston is simply getting began.

Head coach Joe Mazzulla discovered a whole lot of flaws within the second-half, after the Celtics constructed a powerful 30-point lead at halftime, the franchise’s largest first-half lead within the postseason for the reason that 1985 NBA Finals. After taking pictures 60% within the first half, Boston shot 34.9% throughout the second half, and the Celtics have been outrebounded by Atlanta over the ultimate two quarters as properly, 27 to 26.

Boston nonetheless held on for the win, however Mazzulla sees room for enchancment: “ I simply thought we misplaced our offensive goal,” Mazzulla mentioned of the second half. “Taking part in passive offense as a substitute of simply retaining it shifting, being aggressive and sustaining that degree of tempo that we had within the first half.”

“It’s the playoffs,” Jayson Tatum mentioned following the win. “They’re group. We anticipate them to go on runs. A variety of it was self-inflicted: turnovers and missed layups and issues like that. However we responded and clearly there’s a whole lot of issues that we will be taught from and I’m certain the Hawks really feel the identical method. So it’s all about changes and studying from Recreation 1. There’s a whole lot of video games left.”

If a group shoots 35% within the second half, will get outrebounded, and “holds on” for a 29-point win? That’s signal. So too is the concept the Celtics acquired their “get up name” early, in a blowout win.

That ought to terrify the remainder of the Jap Convention. — Mark Schofield

I simply hope the Nets have time

This one time in 2009 I made a decision to enter a Avenue Fighter IV match for enjoyable. I had no enterprise getting into a 128-player match, however discovered myself randomly successful with El Fuerte and made all of it the best way to the semi-finals. Then I acquired dumpstered by somebody who knew what they have been doing.

The Nets are the plucky underdogs now, who significantly don’t belong within the NBA Playoffs. Let’s simply be actual. This group was 32-20 earlier than buying and selling Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant. They then went 13-17 to shut out the 12 months and coasted to the sixth seed due to the outcomes that they had early on. Hell, the Charlotte Hornets went 12-15 over the identical stretch.

I do know that is purported to be overreactions, but it surely doesn’t really feel like one. The Nets don’t stand a rattling probability towards the 76ers. Take a look at each their rosters, go on, open a tab a do a fast search. On the one hand you may have Joel Embiid, James Harden and Tobias Harris. On the opposite you’ve acquired an island of misfit toys with one of many Nets’ best-known gamers now having the nickname “Dinshittie.”

The Sixers didn’t even play very properly in sport one, and nonetheless destroyed Brooklyn by 20 factors. If Embiid and Harden have nearer to their signature video games they may blow out the Nets by 40.

Sixers in 3. The Nets cry and don’t flip as much as Recreation 4. — James Dator

In a wing-driven league, the Cleveland Cavaliers do not need any

After a really aggressive 101-97 loss, there most likely shouldn’t be that many overreactions concerning the Cavaliers possibilities on this collection proper? They acquired destroyed on the glass 51-38 regardless of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen grabbing 11 and 14 rebounds, respectively. Mobley was 4/13 from the sphere and Darius Garland had 1 help to go together with 5 turnovers, however neither of these issues will most likely occur once more.

So why do I believe the Cavs are completed after one sport? Nicely, it’s as a result of the problem that they’ve had all common season has turn out to be magnified within the postseason. This group, for all of the expertise that Mitchell, Garland, Mobley and Allen possess, have completely nothing on the wing that may assist them win this collection.

The New York Knicks utterly ignored Isaac Okoro defensively and begged him to shoot the basketball. Dean Wade was a -14 in SEVEN MINUTES in a sport they misplaced by 4 factors. Caris LeVert was 1-7 and likewise a -14 in his 18 minutes. The Cavs could also be compelled to play Lamar Stevens the remainder of the collection as a result of they merely do not need every other alternative.

It’s solely the primary sport, and a win in Recreation 2 will most likely make me overlook about all of this, but when the Cavs lose this collection we’re going to spend all offseason discussing who do they should commerce between Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen to get a wing (taking a look at you, Brandon Ingram) that may truly assist them win basketball video games within the Spring and Summer season. — Jacolby Hart

The Nuggets’ second-half ‘swoon’ was nothing to fret about

Nobody actually believed within the Denver Nuggets getting into the NBA Playoffs. Regardless of being the No. 1 seed within the West, Denver solely had the third greatest odds to succeed in the NBA Finals in their very own convention, behind the No. 4 seed Suns and the No. 6 seed Warriors. A part of that was as a result of the Nuggets had early playoff exits the final two years (in equity, their second greatest participant Jamal Murray was injured each occasions). A part of it could have additionally been as a result of the group went 12-11 after the All-Star break this 12 months.

If the Nuggets’ Recreation 1 victory over the Minnesota Timberwolves was any indication, Denver was merely saving their legs for playoff time on the finish of the common season. The Nuggets beat the Wolves, 109-80, in an announcement win to begin their postseason run.

The Nuggets’ protection, which was their largest concern getting into the playoffs after ending solely No. 15 within the common season, seemed dominant towards the Wolves. Nikola Jokic managed the sport as a playmaker and rebounder even when it wasn’t his greatest evening scoring the ball. Murray seemed electrical with 24 factors, but it surely was a balanced scoring effort from all the rotation: six Denver gamers scored at the very least 13 factors within the win.

The Nuggets are going to be simply advantageous. As I wrote in our rating publish (the place I had Denver at No. 2 however the group positioned them because the fifth probably group to win the title), doubt the Nuggets at your personal peril. — Ricky O’Donnell

The Grizzlies’ accidents could also be an excessive amount of to bear

The Grizzlies have been already banged up even earlier than they began their run within the 2023 NBA Playoffs. Memphis entered the postseason with out injured beginning middle Steven Adams, and knew they might be lacking key reserve Brandon Clarke for the remainder of the season due to an Achilles tear.

Memphis’ damage points acquired even worse in Recreation 1 when famous person guard Ja Morant went down with a wrist damage. He didn’t sound like he was in good spirits after the sport:

The Lakers took a 1-0 collection lead with Morant out for the ultimate six minutes. A No. 7 seed just like the Lakers shouldn’t be purported to beat a No. 2 seed like Memphis, however this doesn’t really feel like a typical 2-7 matchup. For one, LA reloaded its roster midseason with a unbelievable commerce deadline that jettisoned Russell Westbrook and restocked the roster with succesful position gamers round LeBron James and Anthony Davis. The Grizzlies additionally aren’t the Grizzlies with out Adams’ unimaginable offensive rebounding, Clarke’s athletic defensive playmaking, and naturally Morant’s supernova offensive potential.

Right here’s hoping Morant will get wholesome shortly and doesn’t miss a beat. Flip off accidents. — Ricky O’Donnell

The Kings’ offense will translate to playoff basketball

Essentially the most environment friendly offense in NBA historical past belongs to … the 2022-2023 Sacramento Kings. The Kings’ 119.4 offensive score is the best in league historical past, and helped finish Sacramento’s 16-year playoff drought this season, which was the longest throughout the 4 main skilled sports activities. Sacramento put up so many factors due to each area and tempo: lead guard De’Aaron Fox is likely to be the league’s speediest ball handler, and Sacramento surrounded him with shooters to complete No. 5 within the league in three-point fee.

There was some motive to consider the Kings’ offense wouldn’t be as potent within the playoffs. Traditionally, the sport slows down within the postseason, and simple transition buckets are more durable to return by. Throw in a primary spherical collection with the defending champion Warriors, and most of the people anticipated the Kings’ playoff breakthrough to be brief lived.

As a substitute, Sacramento blitzed the Warriors for a 126-123 win in Recreation 1. Fox had 38 factors and thrived in crunch-time, as he has all 12 months. Malik Monk added 32 factors off the bench, together with going 14-of-14 from the foul line. In the meantime, Kevin Huerter and Keegan Murray went a mixed 0-for-8 from three after they have been the group’s two most constant shooters all 12 months.

Sacramento goes to place up factors. If the Warriors need to win the collection, they are going to want their offense to step up much more than their protection. The Kings’ protection is their large level of concern — particularly their rim safety. Nicely, the Warriors bombed 50 threes in Recreation 1 and barely attacked the paint.

Protection would possibly win championships, however traditionally nice offense beats nice protection within the NBA. The Kings’ offense-first assault goes to be simply advantageous. — Ricky O’Donnell

The Suns’ lack of continuity shouldn’t be discounted

The Suns have been the betting favorites within the Western Convention getting into the NBA Playoffs even supposing the group had barely performed collectively. Since swinging an enormous deal for Kevin Durant on the commerce deadline, Phoenix has solely performed eight video games with KD due to accidents. Sure, Phoenix went unbeaten in that stretch, but it surely was principally towards uninspiring competitors.

Championship groups normally aren’t nonetheless trying to find their identification when the playoffs begin, however that’s precisely what Phoenix is doing. The Suns’ expertise is overwhelming on paper, however discovering cohesion stays a piece in progress. The Clippers beat the Suns, 115-110, to open the collection on Sunday regardless of LA star Paul George being dominated out for the collection with damage.

Durant had 27 factors however solely took 15 photographs — the fifth most on the group. Phoenix continues to be determining how one can get him photographs within the movement of the offense on a group with two different stars in Devin Booker and Chris Paul who additionally need to play with the ball of their palms. Phoenix’s depth seemed good in Recreation 1 due to an ideal outing by Torrey Craig, however that’s nonetheless a priority shifting ahead. Ayton’s incapacity to rebound at a excessive degree, and out-play Clippers middle Ivica Zubac, can be a priority.

Championship groups within the NBA are normally shaped by going via the trials and tribulations of the common season. The Suns didn’t get that probability as a result of they traded for Durant so late within the season, after which needed to take care of him being out and in of the lineup with accidents. It’s not panic time for the Suns but, however this collection was by no means purported to be this difficult. — Ricky O’Donnell