Aaron Rodgers’ commerce to Jets has 2 methods to succeed, and a couple of methods to fail

The lengthy nationwide nightmare is over.

We all know the place Aaron Rodgers might be taking part in quarterback subsequent season.

Weeks of hypothesis drew to a detailed on Monday when it was introduced that the New York Jets and the Inexperienced Bay Packers got here to settlement on a commerce bundle involving the four-time NFL MVP.

ESPN’s Adam Schefter was first to announce the commerce:

So now as a substitute of questioning whether or not Rodgers might be taking part in in Inexperienced Bay or elsewhere subsequent yr, we are able to surprise about one thing else.

Whether or not this may work.

Listed here are two explanation why this marriage might be successful, and two explanation why it can fall in need of delivering on its promise.

Two causes this may work

Aaron Rodgers at his worst continues to be higher than the most effective the Jets had

We’ve change into so accustomed to Aaron Rodgers’ greatness that we’re numb to only how good a quarterback he’s. Rather a lot is made from his struggles in 2022, that are completely honest, however we’re nonetheless speaking a couple of man who in his worst season hovered within the 10-15 vary in a majority of statistical areas.

It’s borderline prison to take a quarterback of his caliber and ask him to have Allen Lazard as a No. 1 goal, whereas growing a rapport with rookie Christian Watson as his second choice. It’s a rattling miracle this staff managed to be dragged to the playoffs, and quite a lot of that could be a credit score to Rodgers.

No matter his points final season, Rodgers nonetheless managed to throw for 26 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Positive, that’s quite a lot of picks for somebody who is often as cautious with the ball as No. 12, however while you understand that Zach Wilson, Mike White and Joe Flacco COMBINED for 15 touchdowns and 14 interceptions you understand what a colossal improve that is for the staff.

For a company who went 7-10 on the again of protection with a useful zero at QB, it is a large step ahead.

The Jets have a greater supporting solid than Rodgers has had in YEARS

Rodgers has been begging the Inexperienced Bay entrance workplace to get him extra weapons to no avail. Not solely did he have to observe as his receivers slowly light away, however then needed to stand by as Davante Adams was traded to the Raiders, leaving him with a handful of magic beans.

Garrett Wilson was in a position to cross 1,100 yard receiving final season. Breece Corridor is getting back from damage. Corey Davis can nonetheless be an efficient goal. Hell, even Elijah Moore has proven promise. It is a a lot deeper offensive group than you’d count on at first cross, however there merely hasn’t been a quarterback to permit these guys to really shine.

You most likely have to return to 2016 when Rodgers had Jordy Nelson and Davante Adams to discover a supporting class nearly as good because the one he’ll lead in New York. That ought to naturally result in some main positive aspects.

Two causes this gained’t work

Chemistry takes time

Final summer time, one of many greatest questions dealing with Rodgers and the Packers was this: How would he, and the Inexperienced Bay passing sport, modify to life with out Davante Adams?

Clearly shedding Adams could be a blow to any offense, even one with a quarterback as gifted as Rodgers. However the primary purpose these questions had been raised handled Rodgers, and the way he approaches the passing sport. Rodgers is a passer that depends on really feel, and chemistry, together with his receivers. It’s why his reference to Adams was so particular. Every knew precisely how the opposite would strategy a sure idea, a sure route, a sure protection.

Really feel, and belief, between a quarterback and a receiver is important to the success of an offense. In his ebook Artwork and Magic of Quarterbacking Joe Montana talked at size in regards to the belief between a quarterback and a receiver:

Follow and taking part in collectively is the important thing for a quarterback and his receivers. After some time, it is possible for you to to only really feel issues. You possibly can inform by the way in which a receiver runs, as an example, the place he’s going to interrupt or how sharp he’s going to be popping out of it. That’s an edge for you. The very last thing you have to be doing is taking too lengthy to consider what is occurring. Clearly, there’s a certain quantity of information-processing happening–however with sufficient persistence, it ought to change into second nature.

That takes time to construct, and it’s why some puzzled how rapidly that will be put in place in Inexperienced Bay this previous season, with Rodgers adjusting to life with new, rookie, receivers.

Ultimately, that began to click on, as down the stretch he appeared to develop and develop that chemistry with rookie huge receiver Christian Watson specifically.

Now, the Jets have already made some strikes that might ease the transition, including Allen Lazard to their roster. As well as, there are studies that Rodgers offered the Jets with a listing of gamers he wished the group so as to add — a listing that Lazard was on — so this may very well be a nod in the direction of dashing up the chemistry course of.

However it takes time, and time is probably not a commodity that AFC groups have subsequent yr. Which leads us to the subsequent level.

The AFC could be very, superb

Definitely there’s a lengthy solution to go earlier than rosters are finalized. We have now the remainder of free company, and naturally now we have the draft arising. So issues might change.

However maybe the most important roadblock in entrance of Rodgers and the Jets?

The remainder of the AFC.

Look across the better AFC panorama, and also you see in a short time that the convention has a variety of groups that may compete not simply of their respective divisions, however the AFC at giant. Simply within the East alone, Rodgers must navigate Josh Allen and the Payments, Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins — each of which had been playoff groups a yr in the past — and Invoice Belichick and the Patriots.

Then within the North you may have the Bengals, who’ve made two-straight AFC Championship video games, the Browns, an bettering Steelers roster that simply missed out on the playoffs a season in the past, and the Ravens, relying on how issues shake out with Lamar Jackson.

The South may need groups just like the Titans, Colts, and Texans who’re in rebuilding mode — and a few may very well be doing so with rookie quarterbacks — however the Jaguars are coming off a division title of their very own and are including Calvin Ridley this offense.

And you recognize what looms within the West…

So even when Rodgers and the Jets are good, the majority of the convention is just too. Good won’t be ok within the AFC subsequent yr.