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The BJP is going through insurrection the collection of its candidates in Karnataka, the place Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai is preventing historical past and odds. Former chief minister Jagadish Shettar and ex Deputy Chief Minister Laxman Savadi, each Lingayat leaders, have switched to the Congress. The Congress, often on the receiving finish of such high-profile exits, has one thing to cheer about, finally.
That is dangerous optics for the BJP as each are senior leaders with a protracted affiliation with the RSS. In an election by which the BJP is already preventing with its again to the wall, confronting anti-incumbency, corruption allegations and a spirited Congress, this can be a setback, although the ruling celebration has downplayed the exits. If it’s all about notion, it seems to be fairly like leaders leaping off a sinking ship.
Each the leaders belong to the influential Lingayat group, which accounts for 14 to 17 per cent of the state’s inhabitants and constitutes the BJP’s core vote base. Karnataka has had eight chief ministers from the Lingayat group. Within the 2018 Karnataka polls, 52 successful candidates belonged to the group. The BJP often units apart a fourth of its ballot tickets for Lingayats.
The group influences the end result in 70 of the state’s 224 seats, primarily in North and Central Karnataka. The BJP received greater than 50% of those seats in 2008 and 2018. The celebration’s 2013 efficiency was marred by the exit of BS Yediyurappa, which cut up its votes and helped the Congress.
Whereas the BJP claims the leaders who left will not be mass leaders, the Congress is magnifying what it calls the “insult” to the Lingayat group. How a lot can this injury the BJP’s prospects? Whereas Jagadish Shettar claims he can sway votes in 20-25 seats, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge says the celebration could achieve extra seats and find yourself with greater than 150, versus 135+ earlier.
Yediyurappa, the BJP’s tallest Lingayat chief, continues to be firmly with the celebration. He was eased out of the chief minister’s submit in July 2021, however he was accommodated within the BJP’s highest decision-making physique, the parliamentary board. Basavaraj Bommai is taken into account his protégé, however all just isn’t properly between the 2.
Yediyurappa and the BJP share a really peculiar and brittle relationship. Whereas Yediyurappa has been pushing for his son as state BJP chief or Marketing campaign Committee Chief, his requests have been ignored in a celebration that scorns dynasty politics. His son Vijayendra has been named a candidate from his conventional seat Shikaripura. The previous chief minister’s shadow combat with BJP Common Secretary (Organisation) BL Santosh isn’t any secret.
The Lingayats, together with Brahmins, are the one core voters of the BJP in Karnataka, with greater than 50 per cent of the group backing it. Even a 2.5 per cent swing of Lingayat assist from the BJP in direction of the Congress can lead to a 1.5 to 2 per cent vote share achieve for the Congress, which may very well be essential in a good contest.
The Congress has been attempting onerous to regain the belief of the Lingayats after the injury accomplished by Rajiv Gandhi’s unceremonious sacking of then Chief Minister Veerendra Patil, a frontrunner of the group, in 1990. When Rajiv Gandhi ordered Patil’s removing from the airport, at a time he was below remedy after a stroke, the Congress ended up alienating the Lingayats for years.
Former chief minister Siddaramaiah introduced separate faith standing for Lingayats earlier than the 2018 election, however it backfired. This time, the Congress has appointed Lingayat chief MB Patil as its marketing campaign committee chief and hopes that the entry of two BJP exes will work in its favour.
Whereas Jagadish Shettar and Laxman Savadi positively don’t enoy statewide affect, their exit can definitely affect the ends in eight to 10 seats in and round their house constituencies of Hubli-Dharwad (Dharwad) and Athani (Belgaum).
Shettar has been a six-time MLA from Hubli-Dharwad whereas Savadi is a three-time MLA from Athani, although he misplaced the polls in 2018. BJP supporters predict these two will lose of their seats.
The “aaya ram gaya ram” politics is in full stream in Karnataka. How does the general public react to such leaders? Are they seen as opportunists and ideologically bankrupt? Do these politicians succeed? Information analysed by the Affiliation for Democratic Reforms (ADR) reveals that 52 per cent of the 433 MLAs and MPs who defected between 2016 and 2020 had been in a position to retain their seats.
The BJP’s purpose for dropping Shettar and Savadi is to offer an opportunity to recent faces. Nevertheless, here is a contradiction – outdated struggle horse Yediyurappa continues to be the face of its marketing campaign. The BJP is taking part in the lengthy sport and making ready for all times after Yediyurappa or different senior leaders in Karnataka.
The ruling celebration is parallelly additionally making an attempt to shed its reliance on the Lingayat group and tighten the management’s grip on the state unit.
Can Shettar’s exit show pricey for the BJP on this cracker of an election? We’ll know on Could 13.
(Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist and commentator. In his earlier avatar he was a company and funding banker.)
Disclaimer: These are the non-public opinions of the writer.
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