Candy 16 groups, ranked by possibilities to win March Insanity in 2023 males’s NCAA event

The primary weekend of March Insanity produces some beautiful outcomes and dramatic moments yearly, and the beginning of the 2023 males’s NCAA event was no totally different. We noticed a No. 16 seed beat a No. 1 seed for less than second time ever when Fairleigh Dickinson did the unthinkable vs. Purdue. We noticed a No. 15 seed beat a No. 2 seed for the third yr in a row with Princeton knocking off Arizona, and the Tigers’ run isn’t finished but. Whereas we didn’t have a real buzzer-beater, JP Pegues’ three-pointer within the last seconds to assist Furman upset Virginia was shut sufficient.

We’re now left with 16 groups and eight superior video games when the event resumes on Thursday to begin the second weekend. With half of the No. 1 seeds and half the No. 2 seeds already eradicated, it actually seems like nearly anybody can win the entire thing.

Earlier than March Insanity picks up once more, right here’s how we’d rank the 16 crew nonetheless standing based mostly on their possibilities of successful the nationwide title. Every of our 5 writers ranked the groups 1-16, and the ultimate rankings have been decided by the averages.

No. 16 Princeton Tigers (15-seed)

Princeton made some historical past with Saturday’s win over Missouri to advance to the Candy 16. The Tigers turned the primary Ivy League crew to make it to the Candy 16 since Cornell again in 2010, and so they turned simply the fourth No. 15 seed in NCAA males’s event historical past to advance to the Candy 16, becoming a member of Florida Gulf Coast, Oral Roberts, and St. Peter’s. Whereas their win over Arizona on Thursday was a tight-knit affair, Saturday’s win over Missouri confirmed that Princeton can take management of a recreation. The Tigers constructed a 33-19 lead within the first half, and after Missouri closed the hole earlier than halftime, a 10-0 run within the second half noticed Princeton draw back for good. What maybe stood out most was the work the Ivy League champions did on the glass. Princeton received the battle of second-chance factors 19-2 whereas out-rebounding Missouri 44-30. That benefit for Princeton included a 16-8 benefit in offensive rebounding. Caden Pierce led the way in which for Princeton with a career-high 16 boards, together with seven on the offensive finish. That benefit could possibly be examined within the Candy 16, as each Baylor and Creighton can be strong on the glass. The Bluejays ranked twelfth within the nation in OR% on protection, forward of the Tigers. — Mark Schofield

Photograph by Dylan Buell/Getty Photographs

No. 15 Michigan State (7-seed)

Demise, taxes, Tom Izzo in March. Certain it’s a cliche, however unbelievably correct. That is removed from Izzo’s finest crew on paper, however that’s meaningless in moments like this. Beating No. 2 Marquette proved why Izzo is considered one of basketball’s biggest strategists, as he labored the whole offense by Tyson Walker, with Joey Hauser’s rebounding power shining en path to a double-double. Balanced on each side of the ball, the Spartans relish in enjoying spoiler, and that is simply a crew that would proceed to shock. Kansas State represents a severe risk within the Candy 16, however so did Marquette and we noticed how that ended up. With time to organize Izzo may have this crew able to compete, and counting out Michigan State is a idiot’s errand. Preserve watching Tyson Walker on this event. Whereas he was barely flat in opposition to USC within the opening spherical, he broke out within the huge approach in opposition to Marquette, giving the crew a headache as he used his athleticism to drive the lane and power foul after foul, capturing 7-8 from the road as he completed with 23 factors. — James Dator

No. 14 Florida Atlantic Owls (9-seed)

Has it been the prettiest of wins? No, under no circumstances. However the Owls preserve dancing, and are headed to the Candy 16 for the primary time in program historical past. What’s made the Owls’ run so spectacular is that they’ve managed to show up the protection whereas the offense finds its shot. The Owls have held their opponents to date to beneath 30% capturing from deep, and of their 78-70 win over Farleigh Dickinson, the Owls protection held the upstart 16-seed to 38% from the sector and compelled 11 turnovers. The Owls have additionally gotten main contributions from their finest gamers, who’ve made powerful photographs all yr. Johnell Davis poured in 29 factors to go along with 12 rebounds, 5 assists and 5 steals, the primary participant in NCAA historical past to have that statline within the event. The scariest half? FAU hasn’t discovered their shot from deep but. The Owls usually shoot nearly 37% from deep and make ten threes per recreation, however that hasn’t fallen but. When it does, be careful as a result of we might have an upstart crashing the Last 4. — JPA

Photograph by Michael Reaves/Getty Photographs

No. 13 Arkansas Razorbacks (8-seed)

It’s straightforward to see 4 potential NBA draft picks on Arkansas’ roster headlined by arguably probably the most star-studded freshmen class within the nation and consider these Razorbacks succeed by being a glitzy offensive powerhouse. In actuality, nothing could possibly be farther from the reality. Arkansas survived a late push from Illinois and wiped away a double-digit second half deficit in opposition to No. 1 seed Kansas by grinding out possessions and giving up nothing straightforward on the defensive finish. Whereas projected lottery decide Nick Smith went scoreless in opposition to the Jayhawks, fellow freshman studs Anthony Black and Jordan Walsh swung the sport with their super protection in opposition to KU stars Jalen Wilson and Gradey Dick. The Razorbacks have some dependable veterans, too, and so they wouldn’t nonetheless be enjoying with out Devo Davis and Ricky Council IV developing so many clutch buckets in Des Moines. Arkansas has the expertise to play with anybody, however they win as a result of they use it largely to dig deep on the defensive finish. After knocking off the defending champs, Arkansas has to consider it will possibly play with anybody nonetheless standing within the West. — Ricky O’Donnell

No. 12 San Diego State Aztecs (5-seed)

The Aztecs may not win within the prettiest of the way, but it surely’s rattling efficient. San Diego State has suffocated groups en path to the Candy 16, solely giving up 57 and 52 factors of their first two video games. With their full courtroom press and the physicality they play with, they’ll flip any recreation right into a slugfest. Offensively, they need to get the ball into the publish and are primarily run by their bigs, however their finest participant to date has been guard Matt Bradley. The 6’4, 220-pound senior is ready to create his personal shot and get powerful buckets for the Aztecs when they should rating. They don’t shoot it in addition to most different groups within the tourney, but when they’ll proceed to get good performances from sharpshooter Micah Parrish, the Aztecs will proceed to bop. — JPA

Photograph by Jacob Kupferman/Getty Photographs

No. 11 Xavier Musketeers (3-seed)

A yr to the day after Sean Miller agreed to return as the top coach at Xavier, he noticed the Musketeers punch their first ticket to the Candy 16 since 2017. Xavier’s 84-73 win over Pittsburgh adopted a mannequin the Musketeers relied on all season lengthy: Unselfish play. Xavier was sixth within the nation in Help Share, with an help approaching 64.1% of Xavier’s baskets this season. Towards the Panthers, the Musketeers had a mixed 22 assists, with 17 approaching their first 19 baskets as they constructed a 14-point lead at halftime. Three gamers — guards Souley Boum, Colby Jones, and Adam Kunkel — averaged at the very least three assists per recreation this season, and so they mixed for 15 assists in opposition to Pittsburgh. As well as, the Musketeers acquired one other huge recreation from their man within the center, as Jack Nunge led the way in which with 18 factors. It was Nunge’s essential block on the finish of Xavier’s opening-round win over Kennesaw State that put Xavier into the Spherical of 32. Their sturdy guard play, and unselfish offensive philosophy, is a good mixture for a run to the Last 4. — Mark Schofield

No. 10 Creighton Bluejays (6-seed)

This Creighton crew all the time felt prefer it had all of the items for a deep NCAA event run courting again to the preseason when sharpshooter Baylor Scheierman signed on as the ultimate addition from the switch portal. It was a rocky highway for the Bluejays for a lot of the season in a troublesome Massive East, however now the imaginative and prescient of what this crew all the time might have been is beginning to come into focus. Creighton has ball dealing with, capturing, and rim safety, and every a part of the lineup made key contributions of their wins over No. 11 NC State and No. 3 Baylor. Middle Ryan Kalkbrenner is among the nation’s finest shot blockers, but it surely was his scoring (31 factors) that carried Creighton in opposition to the Wolfpack. The win over an excellent Baylor squad was a real crew effort, spearheaded by level guard Ryan Nembhard’s capability to get into the paint for simple buckets and free throws. Creighton has been a constantly good program, however they’ve by no means made an Elite Eight earlier than. With a good matchup in opposition to No. 15 seed Princeton developing, that is the time to do it. — ROD

Photograph by Jacob Kupferman/Getty Photographs

No. 9 Kansas State Wildcats (3-seed)

Jerome Tang was speculated to have a multi-year rebuild on his fingers when he left his assistant place at Baylor to take over Kansas State: the Wildcats have been picked to complete final within the Massive 12 coming into the season with a roster largely pieced collectively within the switch portal. As an alternative, Okay-State began 15-1, rose to No. 5 within the AP Ballot at one level, and positioned top-three within the hardest convention in America. Their Candy 16 run has proved this crew is not any fluke: after taking out Montana State in spherical one, Kansas State received the battle of the Wildcats by outlasting Kentucky in probably the greatest video games of the event. At this level, it seems like Tang’s crew has the expertise to compete with anybody. The 5’8 Marquis Newell has turn out to be probably the greatest level guards within the subject, Keyontae Johnson continued his outstanding comeback story with a clutch step-back three to sink Kentucky late, and everybody else will get after it defensively. Abruptly, the Wildcats are the best seed nonetheless standing within the East Area. This Kansas State run feels actual, even when nobody would have believed it again in Oct. — ROD

No. 8 Miami Hurricanes (5-seed)

Once you play the Hurricanes, you higher be prepared for a monitor meet. Miami performs at a frenetic tempo, getting up and down the courtroom and letting their guard play dictate the sport. Guards Isaiah Wong (the ACC Participant of the 12 months) and Nigel Pack can torch defenses with their pace and skill to get to the rim, simply as they did in opposition to Indiana. Towards the Hoosiers, Wong, Pack and Jordan Miller mixed for 58 factors, carving the Hoosier protection up each time they went to the rim. Defensively, they play with numerous exercise, however will be vulnerable to massive scoring runs. Nevertheless, if you wish to beat Miami, you gotta catch them first, and that is perhaps your greatest challenge. — JPA

Photograph by Lance King/Getty Photographs

No. 7 Tennessee Volunteers (4-seed)

This Tennessee basketball crew has a really particular set of abilities, one which makes them a formidable opponent in March: they play protection pretty much as good as any crew that’s left within the event. With out star flooring normal Zakai Zeigler, the Vols have needed to lean on their physicality and protection much more, and it makes them a fully terrifying opponent to play in opposition to. They don’t enable groups to make many three pointers, and their size mixed with their physicality provides numerous groups issues. Offensively, they’ll enter lengthy durations with out scoring factors, however they get contributions from everybody, akin to seniors Santiago Vescovi and Olivier Nkamhoua. Protection is their sturdy go well with although, and in the event that they’re making a deep run, it’ll be due to their protection. — JPA

No. 6 Gonzaga Bulldogs (3-seed)

There’s a sure sort of faculty basketball fan that views Gonzaga as a March Insanity underachiever as a result of they haven’t received a nationwide title, however in actuality no program within the nation succeeds at a excessive degree extra constantly. The Zags are into the Candy 16 for the eighth consecutive yr, a really outstanding accomplishment that has included two appearances within the nationwide title recreation if no championship rings. This isn’t Gonzaga’s finest crew over that stretch, but it surely’s nonetheless an excellent one. The Zags presently have the No. 1 offense within the nation, led by the super all-around recreation of senior heart Drew Timme, who put up a heroic 28-8-3 efficiency in a decent win over TCU within the spherical of 32. Anton Watson offers further defensive help on the within, whereas Julian Strawther is among the finest shooters left within the subject at 6’7. The looming matchup with Gonzaga seems like one of the best of the regional semifinals. Can they get sufficient stops to make yet another Last 4 run with Timme? If not, we will’t wait to see them attempt to out-score the Bruins. — ROD

Photograph by C. Morgan Engel/NCAA Photographs through Getty Photographs

No. 5 UConn Huskies (4-seed)

UConn is again within the Candy 16 for the primary time since their inconceivable run to the 2014 nationwide championship as a No. 7 seed. This time, it doesn’t really feel so shocking. The Huskies felt severely under-seeded when the bracket listed them as No. 4 seed regardless of being top-5 in KenPom effectivity rankings and top-10 within the NET. UConn had dimension, it had capturing, and it had spectacular stability on each ends of the ground. To this point, all of these issues have shined by of their first two wins. We ranked junior huge man Adama Sanogo as a top-10 participant in March Insanity coming into the event, and he proceeded to dominate the opening weekend: after dropping 28 factors and 13 rebounds on Iona, he adopted it up with 24 factors and eight rebounds throughout a win over Saint Mary’s. UConn’s shooters have been on hearth, too, hitting about 45 % of their threes throughout the 2 wins. The protection? Sure, that’s good, too, with each event opponents held beneath one level per possession. With high seed Kansas out within the West Area, the Huskies can dream of one other Last 4 run. They actually do have the items to do it. — ROD

No. 4 UCLA Bruins (2-seed)

Regardless of the whole lot, the Bruins simply preserve successful. UCLA is within the Candy Sixteen for the third consecutive season, however they’ve discovered themselves severely banged up on the trail there. Already with out Jaylen Clark, probably the greatest defenders within the nation, the Bruins suffered one other blow when sharpshooter David Singleton crumpled to the ground with an ankle damage late of their win over Northwestern. Singleton says he’s good to go, however UCLA is skinny. It’s turn out to be a theme for them: final event Jamie Jaquez Jr. sprained his ankle so unhealthy that he wanted offseason surgical procedure, and the yr earlier than it was Johnny Juzang who hobbled by the event.

The Bruins have performed dominant to date, solely trailing for 62 seconds of recreation time firstly of their second spherical recreation. They’ve probably the greatest backcourts within the event: Jaquez Jr. is scoring with ease, averaging 20.5 factors and eight rebounds per recreation and Tyger Campbell feasted on the free throw line (12-12) in opposition to Northwestern. Their weak level is their lack of depth at heart, the place freshman Adem Bona is backed up by Kenneth Nwuba. If Bona or Nwuba will get into foul bother, the Bruins may have a weak level for an opportune crew to assault. – Adam Ward

Photograph by Stacy Revere/Getty Photographs

No. 3 Texas Longhorns (2-seed)

Texas was battle-tested within the nation’s hardest convention all season, and the bumps they took alongside the way in which certain appear to be serving to this crew play its finest basketball on the proper time. The Longhorns have been dominant on their strategy to a Massive 12 event championship, and picked up the place they left off to begin the massive dance with wins over Colgate and Penn State. This crew is beginning to really feel prefer it checks each field for a nationwide champion: they’ve two star guards who can create for themselves and others in Marcus Carr and Tyrese Hunter, they’ve a rotating forged of huge forwards who can end performs inside and defend the paint, and so they have as a lot depth as any crew nonetheless standing. Interim head coach Rodney Terry helped recruit so many of those gamers within the switch portal, and he’s pushing all the appropriate buttons in the meanwhile. Texas basketball isn’t a sleeping big anymore; they’re right here, and so they have each piece a crew must win six video games on this event. — ROD

No. 2 Alabama (1-seed)

There’s no avoiding that discussing the Crimson Tide is messy, and sophisticated. The off-court authorized proceedings swirling across the crew will linger after the season is finished, and we don’t but know if star participant Brandon Miller might be charged in reference to the loss of life of Jamea Harris. Homicide costs have been filed in opposition to former Alabama participant Darius Miles and his good friend good friend Michael Davis, and we’re but to totally know the way far out this extends.

It’s troublesome balancing celebrating this crew as a power on the courtroom, whereas additionally acknowledging the state of affairs off of it. In terms of the Candy 16 one of the best we will do is talk about the efficiency we’ve been introduced with. Alabama has finished precisely what a No. 1 seed ought to. They blew out Texas A&M – CC within the first spherical, and cruised to a 22 level win over No. 8 Maryland within the second spherical, placing the hammer down within the second half and pulling away, displaying their depth. Miller is among the finest gamers in school basketball, and in a position to rating in bunches when wanted, however he’s additionally keen to take a again seat and permit teammates Jahvon Quinerly and Mark Sears shine in opposition to groups with stronger entrance courts. This number of methods to attain ought to propel the Crimson Tide into the Last 4, and so they’re completely a crew to favored to go all the way in which. — James Dator

Photograph by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Photographs

No. 1 Houston Cougars (1-seed)

A shaky opening-round recreation in opposition to Northern Kentucky had some prognosticators questioning if Houston would have the ability to put collectively a deep run, however Saturday’s effort in opposition to Auburn, significantly within the second half, doubtless erased these fears. Regardless of trailing on the half by ten, the Cougars took over within the second half, outscoring the Tigers by 27 en path to their 81-64 victory. Houston additionally acquired some excellent news previous to tipoff relating to the well being of All-American guard Marcus Sasser. Regardless of being restricted in opposition to Northern Kentucky, and never enjoying within the second half, Sasser performed with out limitations on Saturday and hung 22 on the Tigers. If Sasser is wholesome, and the Cougars proceed to frustrate opponents with their stifling protection, Houston might put collectively a deep, deep run. — Mark Schofield