Lovie Smith’s 2-point conversion utterly modified the 2023 NFL Draft

January 8, 2023 — The Texans and Colts simply need it to all be over. Houston is 2-13-1, seeking to shut out the season and rebuild with the No. 1 choose within the NFL Draft, whereas Indianapolis remains to be licking its wounds from the disastrous hiring of Jeff Saturday and an entire collapse after firing Frank Reich.

Regardless of their shared disappointment, the Week 18 sport between the Texans and Colts is remarkably shut. The AFC South rivals are combating for pleasure, and nothing else. Davis Mills throws a 28-yard landing move to Jordan Akins with 50 seconds left on the clock. It’s among the finest throws of Mills’ horrific season, chilly consolation for a participant who’s destined to get replaced.

Down 31-30, the Texans have a call to make: They’ll both kick the additional level and prolong the ache of the 2022 season into additional time, or play to win. Love Smith makes his alternative.

From a soccer perspective it’s the correct transfer. That is completely how a coach ought to coach, and a crew ought to play — however immediately the Texans utterly modified the NFL Draft for his or her crew, and everybody else of their orbit.

What the Texans’ win did to the draft

Beating the Colts in Week 18 solely harm Houston and boosted their AFC South rival. Had Houston misplaced, they might have locked up the No. 1 general choose at 2-14-1, whereas the Colts at 5-11-1 would have fallen to the No. 7 choose behind Detroit.

It might have locked up the No. 1 QB within the class for the Texans, and they’d be choosing Bryce Younger with the primary choose tonight, like they all the time needed. Now they’re left pondering if they need to take a step right down to the subsequent rung of quarterbacks, or draft protection and hope to search out their franchise QB some other place within the draft.

In the meantime, it put the Colts ready to discover their quarterback, with out destroying their draft capital within the course of. It is a fluid state of affairs, and there’s a really actual probability Indianapolis might commerce up on Thursday evening, however transferring up from No. 4 is considerably cheaper that leaping up from No. 7.

It’s not simply Houston and Indy although …

As we see the draft tea leaves swirl collectively, we will see mammoth shifts that stretch past the AFC South on account of the 2 level conversion. If the Bears aren’t choosing No. 1, then Carolina are unlikely to commerce up within the draft, as a result of a driving drive behind the deal was controlling their future when it got here to discovering a brand new quarterback.

It’s completely doable the Bears nonetheless discover a commerce companion, maybe nonetheless with Carolina, however with out that No. 1 choose they possible don’t get WR D.J. Moore within the commerce. Alternatively, the Panthers would possibly sit at No. 9 and hope a quarterback falls to them, fairly than buying and selling up in any respect — which the Colts have little or no motivation to try to transfer as much as No. 2 or No. 3, figuring out the groups drafting forward of them don’t want quarterbacks.

The brief model of what the two-point conversion did is:

• Houston missed out on Bryce Younger
• Carolina doesn’t get their QB
• The Colts get a QB
• The Bears don’t get D.J. Moore

That’s loads of stuff to occur from one temporary play.

Was the two-point conversion the correct name?

That’s a troublesome query to reply. On a macro stage, completely not. Profitable a pointless Week 18 sport brought about immeasurable harm to the Texans that we’d not know for years down the street. If Bryce Younger turns into a franchise-altering QB and the remainder of the category is ok, however unremarkable, then it would reside in infamy endlessly.

Nevertheless, there’s additionally one thing to be stated about being a coach first, not an extension of the entrance workplace. It was Smith’s job to win video games, and motivating them to play arduous in a meaningless sport that followers hoped they lose, says one thing in regards to the tenacity of his convictions.

Hindsight years down the road will inform us extra, however the 2023 NFL Draft was actually outlined by this chilly afternoon in January.